root 14 Aprile 2026The single largest driver of the further pickup in inflation is household energy bills and fuel prices (Chart 2.19). CPI inflation is projected to rise further in the near term, reaching 3.7% in 2025 Q3, mainly driven by higher energy prices. Core CPI inflation, which excludes energy, food, beverages and tobacco, fell in December, to 3.2%, a little below the expectation in the November Report but still historically elevated. The rise in headline CPI inflation over 2024 Q4 was primarily due to a smaller drag on annual inflation from domestic energy bills. Twelve-month CPI inflation was 2.5% in December, up from 1.7% in September (Chart 2.18). Alongside the analysis above that suggests there is little excess tightness in the labour market, survey measures of capacity utilisation also point to only a small degree of spare capacity within firms (left panel, Chart 2.17).
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Chart 2.14: Employment growth appears to have softened though the steer from employment indicators is mixed
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Market intelligence suggests that anticipated policies by the new US administration could lead to additional inflationary pressures, although there has been growing focus on the potential impact on GDP growth of trade and immigration policies. However, the expected pace and extent of these reductions has continued to diverge since November, with markets anticipating more loosening over 2025 in the euro area than in the UK and US. Unemployment remains low in the US and euro area, while pay growth is expected to continue to ease. PCE inflation is now expected by Bank staff to remain above target throughout 2025.
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